Malaysia's crude palm oil (CPO) stock is expected to surge for the fifth consecutive month in July 2025, reaching the highest level in nearly two years. This increase comes as production rises beyond export growth, according to a Reuters survey released on Monday (August 4).

Based on the median estimates from 11 industry players—including traders, analysts, and plantation companies—Malaysia's palm oil stock is projected to rise by 10.8% to 2.25 million metric tons compared to the previous month.

CPO production also shows a positive trend, projected to reach 1.83 million metric tons, an increase of about 8% from June, marking the highest figure in a year after a decline in the previous month.

According to Anilkumar Bagani, Head of Research at the Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin Group, the stock surge is due to increased production and adjustments in domestic consumption data. However, he considers that figures above two million tons during the peak harvest season are still within reasonable limits, especially given the limited palm oil export supply from Indonesia due to the mandatory B40 policy (40% biodiesel blend from palm oil).

“Nevertheless, palm oil still has to compete fiercely with soybean oil from South America and the Black Sea region, which is experiencing a bountiful harvest this season,” said Bagani as reported by _Reuters_ on Monday (August 4, 2025).

Meanwhile, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July are expected to grow by 3.2% to 1.3 million metric tons, reversing the decline from the previous month. However, this export pace is overshadowed by Indonesia's aggressive moves to sell palm oil at discounted prices ahead of the increase in export tariffs in August.

“Indonesia is trying to maximize export shipments before the new tariffs are imposed, thus putting pressure on prices and limiting Malaysia's export space,” explained Tajgir Rahman, General Manager of trading and procurement at IFFCO.

Official data for July from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to be released on August 11.

Detailed Estimates for July 2025 (in metric tons):

Production: 1,792,000 – 1,865,000 (median: 1,827,695)

Exports: 1,146,012 – 1,500,000 (median: 1,300,000)

Imports: 25,000 – 85,000 (median: 60,000)

Ending Stock: 2,099,580 – 2,490,312 (median: 2,250,000)

With the official June stock at 2,030,580 tons, plus the estimated production and imports for July, Malaysia's total palm oil supply is expected to reach 3.918 million tons. Based on median export and ending stock projections, domestic consumption is estimated to be around 368,275 tons.