Fastmarkets analysis shows China’s palm oil imports will likely stay subdued due to abundant soybean oil stocks and unfavorable price spreads. In contrast, India—the world’s largest palm oil importer—is projected to absorb critical supply volumes to support market balance. In Europe, Rotterdam remains a key pricing hub, but liquidity continues to decline amid uncertainty surrounding the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), now set to take effect in December 2026. Palm kernel oil prices already reflect EUDR compliance premiums of US$350–400 per tonne, signaling potential trade segmentation between compliant and non-compliant supply chains. Analysts expect palm oil prices to remain firm in early 2026 before flattening later in the year as Indonesian supply recovers.